ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF EU INTEGRATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODELS

Andi Caushi

doi:10.22437/jiituj.v9i4.43085

Authors

Andi Caushi "Aleksandër Xhuvani" University https://orcid.org/0009-0005-1442-7309

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22437/jiituj.v9i4.43085

Keywords:

Economic Growth Forecasting, European Integration Path, Multilayer Perceptron Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the interplay of endogenous and exogenous factors influencing GDP growth in Albania and Serbia, two nations at different stages of EU integration. Key variables examined include consumption, education, exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), imports, savings (all relative to GDP), and urbanization rates, with a focus on the impact of high-technology exports. To analyze the World Bank dataset from 1993 to 2023 at a 95% confidence level, this study employs an Artificial Neural Network-Multilayer Perceptron Model (ANN-MLP), designated as H (1;1). The dataset is systematically divided into two subsets: the first subset comprises 70% of the observations, while the second subset contains the remaining 30%. The initial subset is utilized to optimize forecasting accuracy, allowing the model to adjust its parameters accordingly. Once the parameters have been optimized, they are applied to the second subset to assess the model's performance. This procedure yields a forecast error of less than 0.3%, demonstrating the model's efficacy. The novelty of this study lies in forecasting GDP growth in Albania and Serbia using ANN-MLP models, with a particular focus on the role of high-technology exports. It emphasizes the distinct importance of exports in Albania versus consumption and FDI in Serbia, offering nuanced insights into country-specific growth mechanisms. This tailored, context-sensitive approach provides valuable implications for policymakers aiming for EU integration, filling a gap in existing literature by explicitly contrasting the economic drivers in these neighboring, yet economically distinct, national contexts.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Andi Caushi, "Aleksandër Xhuvani" University

"Aleksandër Xhuvani" University, Elbasan, Albania

References

Ajadi, O. T., & Ayanlowo, A. E. (2025). Teaching strategies and academic performance of students in basic science in Oyo State, Nigeria. Indonesian Journal of Education Research (IJoER), 6(4), 384-393. https://doi.org/10.37251/ijoer.v6i4.1759.

Alkilany, A. O. A., al-Wasewi, I. H. H., & Nazir, M. I. (2025). Islamic education reform in western contexts: Challenges and opportunities for teacher professionalism. Jurnal Pendidikan Agama Islam Indonesia (JPAII), 6(3), 148-156. https://doi.org/10.37251/jpaii.v6i3.2211

Aghion, P., Caroli, E., & Garcia-Penalosa, C. (1999). Inequality and economic growth: the perspective of the new growth theories. Journal of Economic literature, 37(4), 1615-1660. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.37.4.1615.

Ahmadi, M., Jafarzadeh-Ghoushchi, S., Taghizadeh, R., & Sharifi, A. (2019). Presentation of a new hybrid approach for forecasting economic growth using artificial intelligence approaches. Neural Computing and Applications, 31(12), 8661-8680. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-019-04417-0.

Almeida, L. B. (2020). Multilayer perceptrons. In Handbook of Neural Computation (pp. C1-2). CRC Press.

Aminullah, E. (2024). Forecasting of technology innovation and economic growth in Indonesia. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 202, 123333. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123333.

Apostu, S.A., Panait, M., Vasile, V., Sharma, G.D., Vasile, R., (2023). FINTECHSand financial inclusion—Balkan experience: Digital perspectives on financial markets. Electronic Journal of Information Systems in Developing Countries, 89, e1225789. https://doi.org/10.1002/isd2.12257.

Arkabaev, N., Rahimov, E., Abdullaev, A., Padmanaban, H., & Salmanov, V. (2025). Modelling and analysis of optimization algorithms. Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Terapan Universitas Jambi, 9(1), 161–177. https://doi.org/10.22437/jiituj.v9i1.38410.

Björnfot, F. (2017). GDP growth rate nowcasting and forecasting. Retrieved from

https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-132951.

Boshkov, T., Josevski, D., Miteva, N., (2023). Financial Digitalization and Economic Growth: Recent Developments in Banks and FINTECH. Challenges of Tourism and Business Logistics in the 21st Century, 6(1), 15–25. https://doi.org/10.46763/YFNTS2361015b.

Camba-Mendez, G., Kapetanios, G., Smith, R. J., & Weale, M. R. (2001). An automatic leading indicator of economic activity: forecasting GDP growth for European countries. The Econometrics Journal, 4(1), S56-S90. https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423X.00053.

Didelija, I. (2021). The causal link between savings and economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 16(2). https://doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2021-0018.

Dritsaki, M., & Dritsaki, C. (2021). Comparison of the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method with ARIMA models: Forecasting of GDP per capita in five Balkan countries members of European Union (EU) post COVID. Modern Economy, 12(12), 1972-1998. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2021.1212104.

Dumo, G. A., Ico, H. D., & Magpantay, E. V. (2023). Applicability of Harrod-Domar Model in Explaining Economic Growth in the Philippines. Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting Studies, 5(3), 22-46. https://doi.org/10.32996/jefas.

Erić, O., Kovačević, S., Bjelić, J., & Molnar, D. (2023). Economics of education: The example of the Balkan countries. Acta Economica, 21(39), 51-66. https://doi.org/10.7251/ACE2339051E.

Evmolpidis, V. (2020). The European Union’s Western Balkans Investment Framework initiative: transport infrastructure development and its impacts. Ekistics and the New Habitat: the problems and science of human settlements, 82(3), 9-47.

Halebic, J. (2016). Consumption Function in The Western Balkans Countries. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 267-276.

Hartleib, M. (2012). Analysis of economic growth in Germany based on the growth models of Solow-Swan, Kaldor and Romer [Doctoral dissertation, Murdoch University]. Retrieved from https://researchportal.murdoch.edu.au/esploro/outputs/graduate/Analysis-of-economic-growth-in-Germany/991005542507007891.

Hartwig, J. (2014). Testing the Uzawa–Lucas model with OECD data. Research in Economics, 68(2), 144-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2014.01.002.

Hassan, M. M., & Mirza, T. (2021). Using time series forecasting for analysis of GDP growth in India. Int. J. Educ. Manage. Eng, 11(3), 40-49. https://doi.org/10.5815/ijeme.2021.03.05.

Helmi, S., Setyadi, B., Wedadjati, R. S., AM, M. A., & Yahya, N. (2025). Digital literacy model to improve the marketing skills of MSME women with a community-based educational approach. Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Terapan Universitas Jambi, 9(1), 313–322. https://doi.org/10.22437/jiituj.v9i1.32670.

Huang, P., (2023). Internet financial forecasting and digital economy development by using machine learning algorithm in the new consumption environment. Soft Computing, 27, 10285–10296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-023-08309-3.

Ibrahimi, A. E., & Fetai, B. (2022). The impact of ICT on the GDP growth of Western Balkan countries. SEEU Review, 17(1), 105-119. https://doi.org/10.2478/seeur-2022-0044.

Irtyshcheva, I., Stehnei, M., Popadynet, N., Bogatyrev, K., Boiko, Y., Kramarenko, I., ... & Ishchenko, O. (2021). The effect of digital technology development on economic growth. International Journal of Data and Network Science, 5, 25–36. Retrieved from http://dspace.msu.edu.ua:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/7818.

Islami, M. R. A., Zafari, M., & Anjum, S. (2025). Wearable energy harvester: Application of piezoelectric sensors in shoes as a portable power source. Integrated Science Education Journal, 6(3), 249-257. https://doi.org/10.37251/isej.v6i3.2117.

Jackson, M. M., & Alfaki, A. A. O. (2025). Advancing sustainable development goal 6: Innovations, challenges, and pathways for clean water and sanitation. Integrated Science Education Journal, 6(3), 224-231. https://doi.org/10.37251/isej.v6i3.2114.

Jones, C. I. (2019). Paul Romer: Ideas, nonrivalry, and endogenous growth. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 121(3), 859-883. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12370.

Jushi, E., Hysa, E., Cela, A., Panait, M., & Voica, M. C. (2021). Financing growth through remittances and foreign direct investment: Evidences from Balkan Countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(3), 117. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14030117.

Kotlikoff, L. J. (1998). The AK Model: It's Past, Present, and Future. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 6684.

Krasniqi, F. X., & Topxhiu, R. M. (2017). Export and Economic Growth in the West Balkan Countries. Romanian Economic Journal, 20(65). Retrieved from https://rejournal.eu/sites/rejournal.versatech.ro/files/articole/2017-10-19/3477/xhelili.pdf.

Kruse, R., Mostaghim, S., Borgelt, C., Braune, C., & Steinbrecher, M. (2022). Multi-layer perceptrons. In Computational intelligence: a methodological introduction (pp. 53-124). Cham: Springer International Publishing.

Le, N. N., & Aye, M. Z. (2025). The effect of integrating green sustainable science and technology into STEM learning on students’ environmental literacy. Integrated Science Education Journal, 6(3), 232-239. https://doi.org/10.37251/isej.v6i3.2116.

Linh, T. T. T., Huong, T. T. M., & Thammachot, N. (2025). Sustainable nutrient management for NFT hydroponic lettuce: Integrating kipahit (Tithonia diversifolia) liquid organic fertilizer with AB-Mix. Integrated Science Education Journal, 6(3), 240-248. https://doi.org/10.37251/isej.v6i3.2118.

Li, M., Liu, G., & Zhao, Y. (2007). Forecasting GDP growth using genetic programming. Proceeding, Third International Conference on Natural Computation (ICNC), held on 24-27 August 2007. Halkou: China.

Marjanović, D., Beraha, I., & Simović, V. (2021). The impact of Import, export and FDI on the economic growth of the Western Balkans Countries. Economic Analysis, 54(2), 20-29. Retrieved from https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=1030709.

Miah, M. M., Tabassum, M., & Rana, M. S. (2019). Modelling and forecasting of GDP in Bangladesh: An ARIMA approach. Journal of mechanics of continua and mathematical science, 14(3), 150-166. https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2019.06.00012.

Mkiyes, H. (2023). Catalysing economic growth in Balkan countries. Pressburg Economic Review, 3(1), 1-32. Retrieved from https://review.pressburgcentre.org/per/article/view/23.

Mohamed, A. O. (2022). Modeling and forecasting Somali economic growth using ARIMA models. Forecasting, 4(4), 1038-1050. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4040056.

Osmani, F., & Jusufi, G. (2022). The contribution of higher education to economic growth of Western Balkans: Evidence from Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, and Montenegro. InterEULawEast: Journal for the international and european law, economics and market integrations, 9(1), 85-106. https://hrcak.srce.hr/280273.

Rahajo, M. S., & Kumyat, A. (2025). Analysis of driving factors for the implementation of clean technology to optimize green manufacturing in the wiradesa batik small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Integrated Science Education Journal, 6(3), 258-268. https://doi.org/10.37251/isej.v6i3.2115.

Ristanović, V. (2022). International trade flows of the Balkan states. The Review of International Affairs, 73(1184), 5-27. https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=1041377.

Roubini, N., & Sachs, J. D. (1989). Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies. European Economic Review, 33(5), 903-933. https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(89)90002-0.

Popovic, G., Eric, O., & Stanic, S. (2020). Trade openness, institutions and economic growth of the western Balkans countries. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 16(3), 173-184.

Prifti, J. (2025). Assessing building types to trace the evolution of urban forms. Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Terapan Universitas Jambi, 9(1), 227–237. https://doi.org/10.22437/jiituj.v9i1.38368.

Sanusi, N. A., Moosin, A. F., & Kusairi, S. (2020). Neural network analysis in forecasting the Malaysian GDP. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(12), 109-114. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no12.109.

Shahzad, U., Mohammed, K. S., Schneider, N., Faggioni, F., & Papa, A. (2023). GDP responses to supply chain disruptions in a post-pandemic era: Combination of DL and ANN outputs based on Google Trends. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 192, 122512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122512.

Shaikh, Z. H., Husain, S., Alam, M. N., Baig, I. A., & Rana, M. (2025). Understanding the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on economic growth: Evidence from India. Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Terapan Universitas Jambi, 9(2), 788–809. https://doi.org/10.22437/jiituj.v9i2.42633.

Shimbov, B., Alguacil, M., & Suárez, C. (2019). Export structure upgrading and economic growth in the Western Balkan countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(10), 2185-2210. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2018.1563538.

Singh, J., & Banerjee, R. (2019). A study on single and multi-layer perceptron neural network. Proceeding, 3rd International Conference on Computing Methodologies and Communication (ICCMC), held on 27-29 March 2019. Erode: India.

Spahija, D., Li, W., Muhammedov, M., Nizamov, A., & Iskhakova, S. (2025). Study of the impact of foreign investment on economic development in emerging markets. Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Terapan Universitas Jambi, 9(3), 1025–1036. https://doi.org/10.22437/jiituj.v9i3.42850.

Stojanović, I., Puška, A., & Selaković, M. (2022). A multi-criteria approach to the comparative analysis of the global innovation index on the example of the Western Balkan countries. Economics-innovative and economics research journal, 10(2). https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2022-0019.

Teräsvirta, T., (2006). Chapter 8 forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models. Handbook of Economic. Forecasting, 1, 413–457. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0706(05)01008-6.

Trlaković, J., Despotović, D., & Ristić, L. (2018). Impact of technology-intensive exports on GDP of Western Balkan Countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 40(5), 1038-1049. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.01.006.

Trpeski, P., Cvetanoska, M., & Kozheski, K. (2021). The impact of foreign direct investments on economic growth and trade: A panel approach of selected Western Balkan countries. Management Research & Practice, 13(3), 23-31. Retrieved from https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=976288.

Van Anh, N. T., Tung, H. T., Quoc, D. K., & Luan, M. K. (2025). The relationship among foreign direct investment, trade openness, and economic growth in vietnam from 1991 to 2023. Multidisciplinary Science Journal, 7(5), 2025203-2025203. https://doi.org/10.31893/multiscience.2025203.

Vërbovci, M. P., Gara, A., & Alili, H. A. (2024). Role of innovation on green economic growth: Empirical analysis from the Countries of the Western Balkans. Ekonomika, 103(2), 109-122. https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0699-173X.

Vlah Jerić, S., Zoričić, D., & Dolinar, D. (2020). Analysis of forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for the Croatian economy. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 33(1), 310-330. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1632727.

Ye, Y., Xu, S., Mariani, M. S., & Lü, L. (2022). Forecasting countries' gross domestic product from patent data. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 160, 112234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112234.

World Bank (2023). Databank. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx.