SHIFTING LANDSCAPES: THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL PANDEMIC ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT DISPARITIES AND FISCAL RESILIENCE

Gunawan Gunawan; Bambang Juanda; Andrea Emma Pravitasari

doi:10.22437/jiituj.v10i1.53466

Authors

Gunawan Gunawan IPB University https://orcid.org/0009-0006-4403-1601
Bambang Juanda IPB University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3333-5531
Andrea Emma Pravitasari IPB University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3063-9900

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22437/jiituj.v10i1.53466

Keywords:

COVID-19, Fiscal Resilience, Regional Disparity, Theil Index, West Java, Williamson Index

Abstract

This study analyzes regional development disparities and fiscal resilience in West Java Province, Indonesia, from 2014 to 2024, specifically focusing on the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the Williamson Index and a decomposed Theil Index across four spatial lenses: metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan, north vs. south, development areas, and cities vs. regencies. The research evaluates inequality trends and their determinants through panel data regression (Random Effects Model) for the 2018–2024 period. Results reveal that regional inequality remains high, with the Williamson Index peaking at 0.710 during the pandemic in 2020 and stagnating thereafter. Theil Index decomposition shows that intra-regional (within-area) disparity is the primary contributor to total inequality. Regression analysis indicates that the Human Development Index (HDI) and Non-Physical Special Allocation Funds (DAK) significantly improve GRDP per capita, while population density and poverty rates act as structural barriers. A notable novelty is the identification of a "K-shaped" recovery and a labor market paradox where advanced regions experience jobless growth and educated unemployment. The study implies that West Java must reorient from growth-oriented to people-centered development, prioritizing equitable digital infrastructure and human capital to bridge the gap between industrial hubs and stagnant rural areas.

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Author Biographies

Gunawan Gunawan, IPB University

IPB University, Jawa Barat, Indonesia

Bambang Juanda, IPB University

IPB University, Jawa Barat, Indonesia

Andrea Emma Pravitasari, IPB University

IPB University, Jawa Barat, Indonesia

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