MODEL PREDIKSI PROBABILISTIK LONGSOR YANG DIPICU GEMPABUMI DI WILAYAH PURWOSARI, KULON PROGO
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22437/jop.v10i3.44326Keywords:
Longsor akibat gempa bumi, HVSR, probabilitas, Purwosari, mitigasi bencanaAbstract
Longsor yang dipicu gempa bumi merupakan ancaman signifikan di wilayah dengan topografi curam dan aktivitas seismik tinggi, seperti Purwosari, Kabupaten Kulon Progo. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji probabilitas longsor akibat gempa bumi melalui integrasi metode Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) untuk karakterisasi geologi permukaan dan pemodelan probabilistik berdasarkan pendekatan Hamburger et al. (2020). Data mikrotremor dari 22 titik digunakan untuk mengestimasi parameter Vs30 dan ketebalan tanah (soil thickness), yang kemudian diintegrasikan dengan parameter spasial lain seperti peak ground velocity (PGV), kemiringan lereng (slope), dan Compound Topographic Index (CTI). Hasil pemodelan menggunakan regresi logistik multivariat menunjukkan bahwa 56,69% wilayah studi termasuk dalam kategori risiko rendah hingga sedang, 40,36% dalam kategori sedang hingga tinggi, dan 2,26% berada pada kategori tinggi. Integrasi metode HVSR dan model probabilistik dapat digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi zona rawan longsor akibat gempa bumi serta mendukung perumusan strategi mitigasi bencana dan perencanaan tata ruang berbasis kerentanan seismik di kawasan wisata alam seperti Purwosari.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Sidik Pramono, Arif Rianto Budi Nugroho, Tedy Agung Cahyadi, Suharsono Suharsono, Yohana Noradika Maharani
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