Analisis Error Correction Model  Analisis Error Correction Model terhadap Pengaruh Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (LPE), Inflasi, dan Pengangguran  pada Konsumsi Rumah Tangga di Sumatera Utara (2001–2021): Analisis Error Correction Model terhadap Pengaruh Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (LPE), Inflasi, dan Pengangguran  pada Konsumsi Rumah Tangga di Sumatera Utara (2001–2021)

Dwi Atika Zahra; Fais Irawan; Kevin Lejon Simamora; Khairunnisa Umi Al Mas; Sabrina Erisa Aulia Sihotang; Stevani Nababan; Siti Mardiah; Putri Sari Margaret Julianty Silaban

doi:10.22437/jiseb.v28i02.48668

Authors

Dwi Atika Zahra Department Economic and Bussines, Fakultas of Economic Universitas Negeri Medan North Sumatra
Fais Irawan Department Economic and Bussines, Fakultas of Economic Universitas Negeri Medan North Sumatra
Kevin Lejon Simamora Department Economic and Bussines, Fakultas of Economic Universitas Negeri Medan North Sumatra
Khairunnisa Umi Al Mas Department Economic and Bussines, Fakultas of Economic Universitas Negeri Medan North Sumatra
Sabrina Erisa Aulia Sihotang Department Economic and Bussines, Fakultas of Economic Universitas Negeri Medan North Sumatra
Stevani Nababan Department Economic and Bussines, Fakultas of Economic Universitas Negeri Medan North Sumatra
Siti Mardiah Department Economic and Bussines, Fakultas of Economic Universitas Negeri Medan North Sumatra
Putri Sari Margaret Julianty Silaban Department Economic and Bussines, Fakultas of Economic Universitas Negeri Medan North Sumatra

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22437/jiseb.v28i02.48668

Keywords:

Economic Growth Rate , Error Corecction Model , Household Consumption , Inflation , Unemployment

Abstract

The primary component of aggregate demand, which represents both the stability of the local economy and the degree of community wellbeing, is household consumption. The purpose of this study is to examine how household spending in North Sumatra Province was affected by the Economic Growth Rate (LPE), inflation, and unemployment between 2001 and 2021. To assess both short-term and long-term correlations between variables, secondary data is analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM). According to the study's findings, long-term household consumption is positively and significantly impacted by LPE, indicating that economic expansion can raise people's purchasing power. In the meanwhile, both in the short and long term, unemployment and inflation have a detrimental but insignificant impact. A robust adjustment mechanism to the long-term balance is indicated by the significant correction coefficient of −0.969383. Therefore, it can be said that household spending in North Sumatra is mostly influenced by economic growth, with inflation and unemployment having comparatively little effect. The results of this research have implications for the importance of inclusive economic growth policies to strengthen household consumption, in line with achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially Goal 1 (No Poverty) and Goal 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

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